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There’s 25 per cent upside in affairs Audinate shares at accepted levels according to agent Morgan Stanley, which thinks the bazaar is way too bourgeois in its acquirement estimates for the stock.
Morgan Stanley reckons the shares are account $7.50, and has an “overweight” rating. “We anticipate the axiological adventure is beneath accepted and with Audinate trading amidst concise headwinds, we see an befalling to booty a continued appearance on a competitively advantaged leader, operating aural a ample TAM” – absolute addressable bazaar – “with admission to basic and advance constancy above FY30,” it concludes.
Morgan Stanley forecasts 23 per cent admixture anniversary acquirement advance of 23 per cent to 2022-23 (to $56.9 million) adjoin accord for 18 per cent (to $50.4 million). Arguably the blow of the bazaar is aloof extrapolating from 2020-21 area the business is up adjoin the hit from COVID-19 to the alive contest industry.
Audinate is a bazaar baton in what’s accepted as networked audio or agenda audio networking, via its Dante artefact for complete professionals, which replaces specialised concrete cabling. As Dante is a new standard, Audinate is advance in training the industry’s engineers.
Networked AV still makes up baby percentages of absolute OEM artefact portfolios, implying affluence of ecosystem growth. MS
“We anticipate the bazaar has not accepted the articulation amid Audinate’s advance in basal monetisation abeyant (which is absolute of cycles) and approaching balance power.”
Even if Morgan Stanley is wrong, the accord numbers betoken that Audinate will admixture in band with its acquirement (at 18 per cent), and its action value-to-sales assorted is retained. But the agent is acutely assured that the structural trend is in Audinate’s favour here.
The accident is if the Street is amiss too, again the banal would de-rate but possibly authority on to a 7 to 8 times assorted in the average term, admitting the 25 per cent estimated downside in the meantime.
The upside comes from Morgan Stanley’s acceptance that if its advance estimates are right, the banal justifies an action value-to-sales re-rating of 12 to 14 times, area it has ahead traded.
It’s currently trading on 8.4 times Audinate’s estimated 2021-22 sales (on Morgan Stanley’s numbers) and 9.3 times on accord numbers.
“If contempo industry aggregate estimates are to be believed, there is potentially addition 20 per cent upside to our 2022-23 acquirement forecast,” the agent adds. That’s because its anticipation assumes alone that Audinate bazaar allotment is complete through to 2022-23, but the acknowledgment the agent is audition indicates it’s in actuality accepting bazaar allotment during the downturn. That agency acquirement of $69.1 million.
Audinate aloft in July at $5.15 a share.
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